Ales­sia Peretti

The date of Italy’s next elec­tions was just relea­sed, howe­ver the country’s elec­to­ral sea­son has been on-going sin­ce last Decem­ber, when Mat­teo Ren­zi appa­ren­tly kept his pro­mi­se to resi­gn and reti­re from poli­tics after losing the refe­ren­dum. This could seem qui­te simi­lar to what hap­pe­ned to David Came­ron in the Uni­ted King­dom after the Bre­xit defeat, if Ren­zi did not run again for 2018 elec­tions. Ita­lians and par­ties such as the Five Star Move­ment, the Nor­thern Lea­gue and Bro­thers of Ita­ly asked for an ear­ly elec­tion, which was ini­tial­ly sup­po­sed to be hap­pe­ning in spring 2017. 

Howe­ver, the rea­son it did not is that par­ties could seal the deal for a new elec­to­ral law that the anti-esta­blish­ment par­ty of the Five Star Move­ment claims would dimi­nish their chan­ces to sei­ze power. In fact, accor­ding to Index Research, they are lea­ding opi­nion polls with the 27.8%, neck and neck with Mat­teo Renzi’s Demo­cra­tic Par­ty (24.1%), with the only dif­fe­ren­ce that con­tra­ri­ly to the lat­ter they are firm­ly again­st coa­li­tions with the tra­di­tio­nal par­ties. Thus, it is not sur­pri­sing that the new voting system that pas­sed in ear­ly Octo­ber favours broad pre-elec­tion coa­li­tions thus sim­pli­fy­ing the defeat of the Five Star Move­ment. Rei­te­ra­ting the inter­na­tio­nal poli­tics trend, the cen­tre-left wing coa­li­tion will be weak with the Demo­cra­tic Par­ty allied with other minor par­ties, whi­le the cen­tre-right allian­ce will be far-rea­ching with Mat­teo Salvini’s Nor­thern Lea­gue (13.5%), Gior­gia Meloni’s Bro­thers of Ita­ly (5.3%) and Berlusconi’s For­za Ita­lia (15.5%).

In last few months this coalition has been trying to convince Italians of their credibility and capability, although the thread between them is really thin.

On Octo­ber 22, the Nor­thern Lea­gue gover­nors of Lom­bar­dy and Vene­to held a refe­ren­dum for grea­ter auto­no­my of the two regions from Rome. Never­the­less, they alrea­dy have what they need sin­ce it is not neces­sa­ry to hold a refe­ren­dum in order to ask for auto­no­my. Indeed, Emi­lia Roma­gna ente­red in a deba­te with the govern­ment for grea­ter auto­no­my with just the agree­ment of the Regio­nal Coun­cil, and the Nor­thern Lea­gue itself star­ted the pro­cess of auto­no­my for Lom­bar­dy in 2008 and fai­led.
It is pos­si­ble then, that it was either a mar­ke­ting stra­te­gy to win the vote of the peo­ple for the next gene­ral elec­tions, or a poli­ti­cal move to steer the sup­port for the refe­ren­dum towards a sup­port for their coa­li­tion or even both. Indeed, despi­te the tur­nout was qui­te poor, espe­cial­ly in Lom­bar­dy with 38,6%, the lea­der of the Nor­thern Lea­gue in his fir­st sta­te­ment care­ful­ly cho­se not to use the per­cen­ta­ge of the voting popu­la­tion, but tal­ked about the 5 mil­lion peo­ple who sup­por­ted them, and vin­di­ca­ted the result to legi­ti­mi­ze the power of the Nor­thern Lea­gue to lead the coun­try, sta­ting “c’è una sola Lega che dà spe­ran­za a 60 milio­ni di cit­ta­di­ni ita­lia­ni” (“The­re’s only one Nor­thern Lea­gue that gives hope to 60 mil­lions Ita­lian citi­zens”).
Not only this refe­ren­dum con­firms the popu­li­st move of the cen­tre-right-wing par­ty to try and get voters throu­gh giving grea­ter auto­no­my to the regions of Ita­ly, but also the fra­gi­li­ty of the right-wing coa­li­tion, sin­ce Gior­gia Melo­ni, the lea­der of Bro­thers of Ita­ly – the third big­ge­st par­ty in the cen­tre-right coa­li­tion – com­men­ted the result of the refe­ren­dum explai­ning her par­ty does not save itself resor­ting to local egoi­sm, but making the sta­te more efficient.

The centre-right coalition proved to be stronger on the testing ground of the elections in Sicily. 

They were indeed the only way to regi­ster the poli­ti­cal lea­nings of Ita­lians with real citi­zens and not opi­nion polls befo­re the elec­tions in March. The result of the elec­tions con­fir­med what said abo­ve: a cen­tre-right coa­li­tion of 12 par­ties won with 42.02% in the pro­vin­cial elec­tions and 39.85% for their regio­nal can­di­da­te, fol­lo­wed by the Five Star Move­ment that alo­ne got respec­ti­ve­ly 26.67% and 34.65%, whi­le for the cen­tre-left coa­li­tion was a cata­stro­phe, sin­ce the Demo­cra­tic Par­ty got 12% of votes in the pro­vin­cial elec­tions .
Howe­ver, this is sur­pri­sing if one con­si­ders that it was kno­wn by the voters that the cen­tre-left and espe­cial­ly the cen­tre-right lists were full of objec­tio­na­ble can­di­da­tes who were sen­ten­ced for abu­se of offi­ce, extor­tion, per­ju­ry and even elec­to­ral bri­be­ry. Fur­ther­mo­re, the scan­dals that fol­lo­wed the day of the elec­tions were many, from the old peo­ple in care-hou­ses who were so infirm they were unfit to sign and some­how voted or tra­ded their votes for a face cream to the more syste­ma­tic and effi­cient vote-buy­ing expo­sed by Ismae­le La Var­de­ra. A Sici­lian woman revea­led to the jour­na­li­st that a news ven­dor in Aci­rea­le was offe­ring some of her clien­ts 50 euros each to vote for the can­di­da­te of Berlusconi’s par­ty. Hid­den came­ras show the pro­ta­go­ni­st col­lec­ting the money the day after the elec­tions and the news vendor’s list of other elec­tors who were offe­red the same deal.

On the whole, on this occasion the centre-right coalition proved on one side to be more united than ever – despite hiccups like the leader of Brothers of Italy claiming the choice of the presidential candidate for herself – but on the other to be less reliable and capable.

The only way the cen­tre-right par­ties can win is by stic­king toge­ther and sho­wing Ita­lians they are a com­pe­tent alter­na­ti­ve to the Demo­cra­tic Par­ty and the Five Star Move­ment, howe­ver the only thing they seem to agree on is the rejec­tion of the Ius Soli law. After Berlusconi’s par­ty voted again­st a law that would deny redu­ced sen­ten­ce for extre­me­ly serious offen­ces, Sal­vi­ni (Nor­thern Lea­gue) disclo­sed in an inter­view that his par­ty did not want any­thing to do with For­za Ita­lia sin­ce they pro­tec­ted “assas­sins and rapists”. Howe­ver, the big­ge­st sore point of this allian­ce is the choi­ce of the Pri­me Mini­ster, sin­ce eve­ry­bo­dy wan­ts to claim the role for them­sel­ves. Ber­lu­sco­ni can­not legal­ly run for the pri­me mini­ster­ship sin­ce the Seve­ri­no law denied him to hold any public offi­ce till 2019 due to his sen­ten­ce, but he asked the Euro­pean Court of Human Rights for the ban to be lif­ted. In a recent inter­view he revea­led he would be the per­fect can­di­da­te, but in case the sen­ten­ce will be nega­ti­ve or will not be deter­mi­ned in time, the gene­ral Gali­tel­li would be a sui­ta­ble alter­na­ti­ve for the lea­der­ship of their coa­li­tion. Sal­vi­ni clai­med he never tal­ked with Ber­lu­sco­ni about a pos­si­ble can­di­da­te for the Pri­me Mini­ster­ship, and refu­sed his sug­ge­stion that Sal­vi­ni would be a per­fect Inte­rior Mini­ster, sin­ce he wan­ts to run for the posi­tion of Pri­me Mini­ster him­self. This pro­blem was tem­po­ra­ri­ly resol­ved with the deci­sion that whoe­ver gets more votes is the one who will choo­se the Pri­me Minister. 

The cen­tre-right par­ties may be stic­king toge­ther becau­se this is the only way they can get to a posi­tion of power. Howe­ver, the lack of a clear majo­ri­ty par­ty in the coa­li­tion makes it impos­si­ble for them not to be invol­ved in a recur­ring game of pro­ving who is the real lea­der and this is fur­ther divi­ding them. In spi­te of eve­ry­thing, the­re is no doubt that they will be more uni­ted than ever during the elec­tion week.